2020/2021 Bowl Game Prediction Results
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Bowls correctly predicted by each ranking
listed in Kenneth Massey's last Pre-Bowl
College Football Ranking Comparison.
Each ranking is scored,
with one point for predicting each bowl winner,
except two points are given for predicting the winner of the
College Football Playoff National Championship.
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1 SAG 21.000 (20/26 i.e. 19 1)
2 BCM 20.000 (19/26 i.e. 18 1)
2 CTW 20.000 (19/26 i.e. 18 1)
2 DCI 20.000 (19/26 i.e. 18 1)
2 FPI 20.000 (19/26 i.e. 18 1)
6 BRN 19.000 (18/26 i.e. 17 1)
6 CSL 19.000 (18/26 i.e. 17 1)
6 DOK 19.000 (18/26 i.e. 17 1)
6 DP 19.000 (18/26 i.e. 17 1)
6 FEI 19.000 (18/26 i.e. 17 1)
6 JNG 19.000 (18/26 i.e. 17 1)
6 KEE 19.000 (18/26 i.e. 17 1)
6 KFD 19.000 (18/26 i.e. 17 1)
6 MAS 19.000 (18/26 i.e. 17 1)
6 PIR 19.000 (18/26 i.e. 17 1)
6 TRP 19.000 (18/26 i.e. 17 1)
17 BAS 18.000 (17/26 i.e. 16 1)
17 CGV 18.000 (17/26 i.e. 16 1)
17 COF 18.000 (17/26 i.e. 16 1)
17 PFZ 18.000 (17/26 i.e. 16 1)
17 SMS 18.000 (17/26 i.e. 16 1)
17 TPR 18.000 (17/26 i.e. 16 1)
23 ARG 17.000 (16/26 i.e. 15 1)
23 Average 17.000 (16/26 i.e. 15 1)
23 BWE 17.000 (16/26 i.e. 15 1)
23 DUN 17.000 (16/26 i.e. 15 1)
23 FAS 17.000 (16/26 i.e. 15 1)
23 JJK 17.000 (16/26 i.e. 15 1)
23 Median 17.000 (16/26 i.e. 15 1)
23 NOL 17.000 (16/26 i.e. 15 1)
23 PGH 17.000 (16/26 i.e. 15 1)
23 SFX 17.000 (16/26 i.e. 15 1)
23 WMV 17.000 (16/26 i.e. 15 1)
34 BIH 16.000 (15/26 i.e. 14 1)
34 CPI 16.000 (15/26 i.e. 14 1)
34 DES 16.000 (15/26 i.e. 14 1)
34 DOL 16.000 (15/26 i.e. 14 1)
34 HAT 16.000 (15/26 i.e. 14 1)
34 PPP 16.000 (15/26 i.e. 14 1)
40 BIL 15.000 (14/26 i.e. 13 1)
40 COL 15.000 (14/26 i.e. 13 1)
40 CQI 15.000 (14/26 i.e. 13 1)
40 KAM 15.000 (14/26 i.e. 13 1)
40 KPK 15.000 (15/26 i.e. 15 0)
40 KRA 15.000 (14/26 i.e. 13 1)
40 MOR 15.000 (14/26 i.e. 13 1)
40 MRK 15.000 (15/26 i.e. 15 0)
40 OSC 15.000 (14/26 i.e. 13 1)
40 SOR 15.000 (15/26 i.e. 15 0)
40 WOB 15.000 (14/26 i.e. 13 1)
51 LAZ 14.000 (13/26 i.e. 12 1)
51 LOG 14.000 (14/26 i.e. 14 0)
51 VRN 14.000 (14/26 i.e. 14 0)
54 DII 13.000 (13/26 i.e. 13 0)
54 WEL 13.000 (13/26 i.e. 13 0)
56 AND 12.000 (12/26 i.e. 12 0)
56 HOW 12.000 (11/26 i.e. 10 1)
58 AP 10.000 (9/26 i.e. 8 1)
58 CFP 10.000 (9/26 i.e. 8 1)
58 RDT 10.000 (9/26 i.e. 8 1)
58 RWP 10.000 (10/26 i.e. 10 0)
58 USA 10.000 (9/26 i.e. 8 1)
Scoring:
Round 1: 1 point.
Round 2: 2 points.
'Average' is Massey comparison Mean ranking.
'Median' is Massey comparison Median ranking.
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But how do the top 25 of the rankings stack up?
Here is a bowl prediction count based solely on the
top 25 teams in each ranking
(see explanation below).
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1 FEI 20.109 (19.109/26 i.e. 18.109 1)
2 FPI 19.117 (18.117/26 i.e. 17.117 1)
2 SAG 19.117 (18.117/26 i.e. 17.117 1)
4 KEE 18.956 (17.956/26 i.e. 16.956 1)
5 CTW 18.884 (17.884/26 i.e. 16.884 1)
6 DCI 18.450 (17.450/26 i.e. 16.450 1)
7 BCM 18.321 (17.321/26 i.e. 16.321 1)
8 BRN 18.117 (17.117/26 i.e. 16.117 1)
8 DOK 18.117 (17.117/26 i.e. 16.117 1)
8 DP 18.117 (17.117/26 i.e. 16.117 1)
8 KFD 18.117 (17.117/26 i.e. 16.117 1)
8 MAS 18.117 (17.117/26 i.e. 16.117 1)
8 TRP 18.117 (17.117/26 i.e. 16.117 1)
14 SMS 18.109 (17.109/26 i.e. 16.109 1)
15 BWE 17.972 (16.972/26 i.e. 15.972 1)
16 CGV 17.924 (16.924/26 i.e. 15.924 1)
17 SFX 17.867 (16.867/26 i.e. 15.867 1)
18 CSL 17.662 (16.662/26 i.e. 15.662 1)
19 JNG 17.622 (16.622/26 i.e. 15.622 1)
20 DUN 17.592 (16.592/26 i.e. 15.592 1)
21 BIL 17.567 (16.567/26 i.e. 15.567 1)
22 Median 17.304 (16.304/26 i.e. 15.304 1)
23 PFZ 17.218 (16.218/26 i.e. 15.218 1)
24 PIR 17.117 (16.117/26 i.e. 15.117 1)
25 FAS 17.056 (16.056/26 i.e. 15.056 1)
25 WMV 17.056 (16.056/26 i.e. 15.056 1)
27 DOL 16.916 (15.916/26 i.e. 14.916 1)
28 COF 16.916 (15.916/26 i.e. 14.916 1)
28 PGH 16.916 (15.916/26 i.e. 14.916 1)
30 Average 16.844 (15.844/26 i.e. 14.844 1)
31 ARG 16.700 (15.700/26 i.e. 14.700 1)
32 Allsame 16.699 (15.825/26 i.e. 14.951 0.874)
33 OSC 16.567 (15.567/26 i.e. 14.567 1)
34 AP 16.551 (15.551/26 i.e. 14.551 1)
34 CFP 16.551 (15.551/26 i.e. 14.551 1)
34 DES 16.551 (15.551/26 i.e. 14.551 1)
34 RDT 16.551 (15.551/26 i.e. 14.551 1)
34 USA 16.551 (15.551/26 i.e. 14.551 1)
39 BAS 16.458 (15.458/26 i.e. 14.458 1)
40 KAM 16.117 (15.117/26 i.e. 14.117 1)
40 TPR 16.117 (15.117/26 i.e. 14.117 1)
42 PPP 16.056 (15.056/26 i.e. 14.056 1)
43 LAZ 15.916 (14.916/26 i.e. 13.916 1)
44 CQI 15.908 (14.908/26 i.e. 13.908 1)
45 HAT 15.844 (14.844/26 i.e. 13.844 1)
46 NOL 15.748 (14.748/26 i.e. 13.748 1)
47 JJK 15.539 (14.539/26 i.e. 13.539 1)
48 KRA 15.406 (14.406/26 i.e. 13.406 1)
49 COL 15.246 (14.246/26 i.e. 13.246 1)
50 BIH 15.182 (14.182/26 i.e. 13.182 1)
50 CPI 15.182 (14.182/26 i.e. 13.182 1)
52 MOR 15.048 (14.048/26 i.e. 13.048 1)
53 WOB 14.897 (13.897/26 i.e. 12.897 1)
54 KPK 14.855 (14.855/26 i.e. 14.855 0)
55 VRN 14.763 (14.763/26 i.e. 14.763 0)
56 LOG 14.699 (14.699/26 i.e. 14.699 0)
56 MRK 14.699 (14.699/26 i.e. 14.699 0)
58 WEL 14.539 (14.539/26 i.e. 14.539 0)
59 HOW 14.199 (13.199/26 i.e. 12.199 1)
60 SOR 13.418 (13.418/26 i.e. 13.418 0)
61 AND 13.368 (13.368/26 i.e. 13.368 0)
62 DII 13.210 (13.210/26 i.e. 13.210 0)
63 RWP 11.559 (11.559/26 i.e. 11.559 0)
Scoring:
Round 1: 1 point.
Round 2: 2 points.
Top 25 of rankings only.
Games with both teams beyond 25 or teams of same rank
given a calculated partial credit.
'Average' is Massey comparison Mean ranking.
'Median' is Massey comparison Median ranking.
'Allsame' is ranking with all teams ranked equally.
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Explanation of the "top 25" bowl scoring
(This scoring is only reasonable for comparing with a ranking
that only ranks the top 25, i.e., AP, USA, CFP, and RDT.)
If at least one team in the game is ranked in the ranking's top 25,
it is clear which team the ranking chooses to win.
For all the games which a ranking's top 25 does not call in such manner,
a "most likely number of correct choices" is used,
based upon how many full rankings ranked the winner higher
for each of those games.
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